While Liverpool have had the occasional stumble in their Premier League season so far, their Europa League campaign has so far progressed flawlessly, with the Reds sitting pretty on top of Group E with a maximum haul of nine points.
Jurgen Klopp’s side put their 100% record on the line once more when they face Toulouse in France on Thursday evening, hoping for an outcome similar to the 5-1 thrashing they administered to the Ligue 1 club at Anfield a fortnight ago.
As the group stage of the competition moves beyond the halfway point this week, the first few places in the knockout rounds could potentially be secured, with other clubs possibly having their fate sealed for the worse.
Ahead of Liverpool’s fourth Group E clash, let’s look at the table so far and talk through the various permutations at play for the Reds at this juncture.
Are Liverpool guaranteed to progress to the next round of the Europa League?
Right now, the Reds still have a little bit of work to do to make sure of reaching the knockout rounds of the competition. However, any positive result against Toulouse on Thursday would almost certainly guarantee their place in the round of 32 at least.
The only thing we know for certain at this point is that Klopp’s side will have European football of some description in the spring, as they can’t finish bottom of this group.
The only way LASK can finish ahead of us is for them to win their three remaining matches and us to lose all of ours. Even then, they’d have to beat us by two goals or more, with head-to-head results the first separator of teams who finish level on points, and Liverpool winning 3-1 in Austria in September.
In the unlikely scenario of LASK managing to leapfrog us in the final group table, we still wouldn’t end up bottom. Either Toulouse or Union Saint-Gilloise could also finish ahead of us, but not both.
Should they both beat us but lose to the Austrian outfit, they’d have seven points each, but they also play each other again, which’d mean that they draw and both finish on eight points (in which case we qualify no matter what), or one loses and ends up with seven.
If Liverpool were to finish third in the group, they’d then drop down to the Europa Conference League knockout round play-offs in February.
Could Liverpool lose all their matches and still progress in the Europa League?
Surprisingly, yes.
Let’s say LASK and Union draw this week, leaving them with one and five points respectively. The former would then be unable to catch us, even if they beat us at Anfield.
If Union were then to suffer defeat in Toulouse on matchday five, but still beat the Reds in Belgium next month, they’d finish on eight points, one fewer than Klopp’s side.
Would a draw be enough for Liverpool to qualify from their Europa League group this week?
It almost certainly would, and it definitely would if Union fail to beat LASK in Austria.
A draw for Liverpool on Thursday would leave us five points ahead of Toulouse, who’d then have to win both their remaining matches (and we’d have to lose our final two) to go above us. One of those games is against Union, and should the French side win that, the Belgians would no longer be able to catch us if they fail to beat LASK.
The only way in which a draw for the Reds wouldn’t confirm their progression is if Union were to win and move to seven points, Toulouse win their final two games and we lose both of ours (even then Union would have to beat us by three goals or more in Belgium after our 2-0 win at Anfield).
Does a win in Toulouse guarantee Liverpool’s place in the Europa League knockout rounds and can they be confirmed as group winners this week?
The answer to both questions is yes. A Liverpool win on Thursday makes it impossible for both Toulouse and LASK to catch us, no matter what else happens.
If we win in France, and Union fail to beat LASK in Austria, we’d be either seven or eight points clear at the top of the group with two games to spare, and duly confirmed as winners of Group E. That’d be significant as it’d mean we bypass the play-off round in February and go straight into the round of 16 in March.
Aside from easing possible fixture congestion in February (when we could potentially be in the Carabao Cup final and would duly have our Premier League match at home to Luton rescheduled), it’d also give Klopp the luxury of resting his players for the final two group games against LASK and Union in the knowledge that top spot has been secured.
With Liverpool already set to play 10 times in 32 days from the end of the November international break to Boxing Day, the opportunity to rest key players for European games of no consequence would be extremely welcome.
The UEFA Champions League is Europe’s premier club football competition, organized by the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA). It features the continent’s top club teams, competing in a prestigious tournament with group stages and knockout rounds.